August 8, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

22.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$88

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 22.7% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Ind. del Valle to winLDU Quito vs Ind.79¢

2Connecticut to winPhoenix vs Connecticut77¢

3Minnesota to winMinnesota vs Milwaukee77¢

4Chicago C wins by over 1.5 runs to winCHC vs KC63¢

5St. Louis to winColorado vs St.77¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 40% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.