August 10, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

5.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$383

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 5.2% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Tampa Bay to winTampa Bay vs A's60¢

2Milwaukee to winMilwaukee vs San51¢

3Mensik: Total Games: Over 22.5 gamesBotic Van de Zandschulp vs Jakub48¢

4Houston wins first 5 innings to winSan Diego be the Houston vs San67¢

5Texas to winTexas vs Los53¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 21% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.