August 11, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

6.8%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$295

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 6.8% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Venedikt Tsirikidze to winTsirikidze vs Gao35¢

2Juventus to winPalermo vs Juventus68¢

3Indiana to winNew York vs Indiana62¢

4Xirui Han to winXirui Han win the Han vs Ann73¢

5Petr Bar Biryukov to winBar Biryukov vs Ichikawa63¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.