August 12, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

10.4%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$193

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 10.4% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Yibing Wu to winMCD vs YIB52¢

2Miami wins by over 1.5 runs to winPIT vs MIA79¢

3Angeles A First Inning RunTexas vs Los55¢

4Chicago C wins by over 1.5 runs to winCHC vs WSH79¢

5Total Runs: Over 13.5 runs scoredChicago C vs Washington58¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 31% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.