August 13, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

3.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$548

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 3.6% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Chicago C wins by over 4.5 runs to winCHC vs WSH38¢

2Marina Mabrey: 20+ pointsTOR vs DAL39¢

3Bo Bichette: 2+ hits + runs + RBIsNYM vs ATL52¢

4Total Runs: Over 6.5 runs scoredPhiladelphia vs Minnesota74¢

5Total Runs: Over 6.5 runs scoredPittsburgh vs Miami64¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 18% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.