August 14, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

Not settled yet

WE SAID

8.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

—

still playing

FAIR PAYOUT

$234

off $20

The ticket, as we published it

1over 2.5 goals be scored: Over 2.5 goals scoredOLM vs ATM64¢

2Amit Vales to winVales win the Nordquist vs Vales53¢

3Hubert Hurkacz to winShimabukuro vs Hurkacz77¢

4Mia Ristic to winMia Ristic win the Zaar vs Ristic76¢

5Max Homa beat Shane Lowry in the 2nd round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Max Homa beats Shane Lowry in the 2nd Rou43¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 29% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.