August 14, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

8.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$234

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 8.5% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1over 2.5 goals be scored: Over 2.5 goals scoredOLM vs ATM64¢

2Amit Vales to winVales win the Nordquist vs Vales53¢

3Hubert Hurkacz to winShimabukuro vs Hurkacz77¢

4Mia Ristic to winMia Ristic win the Zaar vs Ristic76¢

5Max Homa beat Shane Lowry in the 2nd round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship: Max Homa beats Shane Lowry in the 2nd Rou43¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 29% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.