August 15, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

6.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$304

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 6.6% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Flavio Cobolli to winKecmanovic vs Cobolli55¢

2New York wins by over 7.5 points to winNYC vs ONN53¢

3Aziz Dougaz to winDougaz win the Dougaz vs Fomin60¢

4Matteo Arnaldi to winArnaldi win the Landaluce vs Arnaldi47¢

5Novak Djokovic to winDjokovic win the Djokovic vs Tirante80¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 25% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.