August 18, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

Not settled yet

WE SAID

5.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

—

still playing

FAIR PAYOUT

$365

off $20

The ticket, as we published it

1over 3.5 goals be scored: Over 3.5 goals scoredFCH vs BMU57¢

2Daniil Medvedev to winNakashima vs Medvedev57¢

3Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs to winLAD vs COL54¢

4Felix Auger-Aliassime -4.5 games to winCER vs AUG48¢

5England to winEngland vs Pakistan65¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 22% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.