August 19, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

10.8%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$186

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 10.8% to hit, missing was always about 89% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Elena Rybakina to winRybakina win the Shnaider vs Rybakina73¢

2Alexander Zverev to winZverev win the Zverev vs Paul73¢

3Washington wins by over 9.5 points to winTOR vs WSH54¢

4Jakub Mensik to winMensik win the Tirante vs Mensik68¢

5Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs to winLAD vs COL55¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 31% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.