August 20, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

2.4%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$837

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 2.4% to hit, missing was always about 98% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 8.5 runs scoredATH vs KC48¢

2St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs to winSTL vs CIN41¢

3Zi Ying Ruan to winCEM vs RUA71¢

4Amanda Anisimova to winANI vs PEG45¢

5Meritxell Teixido Garcia to winTEI vs CLA38¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 14% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.