August 21, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$561

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.6% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Roman Andres Burruchaga to winKOU vs BUR54¢

2Texas wins by over 1.5 runs to winWSH vs TEX58¢

3Sara Bejlek to winBEJ vs KEY35¢

4Taylor Fritz to winFRI vs NAK65¢

5Arike Ogunbowale: 20+ pointsIND vs DAL50¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 18% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.