August 22, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$548

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.6% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 10.5 runs scoredCLE vs COL53¢

2Scottie Scheffler shoot under 66.5 in Round 3: R3: Scottie Scheffler under 66.5 strokes56¢

3Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs to winPIT vs LAD52¢

4Milwaukee wins by over 1.5 runs to winATL vs MIL43¢

5Over 8.5 runs scoredSTL vs PHI55¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 17% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.