August 23, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

6.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$303

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 6.6% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1women's Pro Basketball game: Over 97.5 second half points: Over 97.5 2H points scoredLas Vegas vs Toronto73¢

2Full Game: over 173.5 points: Over 173.5 points scoredSEA vs DAL52¢

3Arthur Fils to winFIL vs TIA67¢

4Rory McIlroy shoot under 67.5 in Round 4: R4: Rory McIlroy under 67.5 strokes48¢

5Over 8.5 runs scoredTBB vs AL54¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 25% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.