August 26, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.8%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

2 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$417

off $20

It missed, with 2 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.8% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 8.5 runs scoredTEX vs CWS45¢

2Kei Nishikori to winNIS vs ANT61¢

3Abdulhamid Mubarak to winMUB vs ALA59¢

4Mateja Stanisavljevic to winSTA vs EHR57¢

5Miha Vetrih to winFIO vs VET52¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 20% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.