August 27, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

6.9%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$288

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 6.9% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Scottie Scheffler finishes top 567¢

2San Diego to winSD vs TB47¢

3Reg Time: Chelsea wins by more than 2.5 goals to winCFC vs LUT52¢

4Ryan Colby to winCOL vs VRB53¢

5Andrea Guerrieri to winDOU vs GUE80¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.