August 28, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

8.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$244

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 8.2% to hit, missing was always about 92% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Los Angeles D wins by over 1.5 runs to winLAD vs DET54¢

2Pierre Antoine Tailleu to winLIV vs TAI71¢

3Yilizhati Maimaitijiang to winMAI vs VIN59¢

4Over 8.5 runs scoredCIN vs CHC47¢

5Kateryna Diatlova to winDIA vs EZZ77¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 28% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.