August 29, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

1.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$1,160

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 1.7% to hit, missing was always about 98% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1over 2.5 goals be scored: Over 2.5 goals scoredKON vs KOC38¢

2Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs to winCOL vs ATL51¢

3Nick Martinez: 4+ strikeoutsSD vs TB41¢

4Lan Mi to winMIX vs SAN62¢

5Toronto wins by over 1.5 runs to winSEA vs TOR35¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 11% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.