August 30, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

2 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$482

off $20

It missed, with 2 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.2% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 7.5 runs scoredPIT vs STL52¢

2Cleveland wins by over 1.5 runs to winKCC vs LE44¢

3Alex Smalley shoot under 68.5 in Round 4: R4: Alex Smalley under 68.5 strokes63¢

4Boston wins by over 1.5 runs to winBOS vs NYY45¢

5Matyas Fuele to winWIN vs FUE64¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 19% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.