August 31, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

8.9%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$224

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 8.9% to hit, missing was always about 91% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Vaishnavi Adkar to winADK vs HUA67¢

2Petra Marcinko to winBIR vs MAR74¢

3Emma Navarro to winEmma Navarro vs Lois64¢

4LG Twins to winLGL vs OT72¢

5Namibia to winZIM vs NAM39¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 30% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.