September 3, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

12.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

3 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$167

off $20

It missed, with 3 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 12.0% to hit, missing was always about 88% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Pittsburgh to winSFP vs IT76¢

2Francisco Cerundolo to winSTR vs CER62¢

3Mark Lajal to winIVA vs LAJ76¢

4over 3.5 goals be scored: Over 3.5 goals scoredFCC vs NJA62¢

5Gabriel Schenekenberg to winMAR vs SCH54¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 32% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.