September 4, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

13.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$154

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 13.0% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Daniil Medvedev to winMED vs RIN73¢

2LSU wins by over 10.5 points to winCLEM vs LSU47¢

3Ben Shelton to winSHE vs SHA78¢

4Chun Hsin Tseng to winTSE vs SUN64¢

5Linda Noskova to winANN vs NOS76¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 35% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.