September 5, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$428

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.7% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Luciano Darderi to winDAR vs SWE77¢

2LSU wins by over 10.5 points to winCLEM vs LSU45¢

3Ole Miss wins by over 6.5 points to winLOUM vs ISS52¢

4Over 6.5 runs scoredDET vs CLE54¢

5Alexandra Eala to winJOV vs EAL48¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 20% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.