September 7, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

7.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$268

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 7.5% to hit, missing was always about 93% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Coco Gauff to winJOV vs GAU72¢

2Learner Tien to winKHA vs TIE62¢

3Ben Shelton to winBen Shelton vs Stefanos70¢

4Anna Kalinskaya to winAnna Kalinskaya vs Emma52¢

5Reg Time: Toluca to winTOL vs MON46¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.