September 8, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.7%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$426

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.7% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Al Nassr wins by more than 1.5 goals to winALN vs ABH62¢

2Barcelona wins by more than 2.5 goals to winBAR vs FEY59¢

3over 1.5 goals be scored: Over 1.5 goals scoredUNII vs ACC63¢

4Over 51.5 points scoredGAST vs KENN55¢

5Yun Seong Chung to winIMA vs CHU37¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 21% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.