September 10, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

2.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$909

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 2.2% to hit, missing was always about 98% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Elena Rybakina to winGAU vs RYB50¢

2Marwan Rahiki to winMCM vs RAH41¢

3Filip Peliwo to winMIY vs PEL42¢

4Manchester United wins 1st Half to winMUN vs SBH71¢

5Curtis Blaydes to winCOR vs BLA36¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 13% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.