September 12, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

7.5%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$266

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 7.5% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Karan Singh to win69¢

2Alexander Chang to winBAR vs CHA76¢

3Kyle Monangai: 30+ rushing yardsCHI vs CAR53¢

4Jaylin Noel: 15+ receiving yardsBUF vs HOU52¢

5Goncalo Marques to winMAR vs TAB52¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 26% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.