September 14, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

7.4%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$272

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 7.4% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Leon to winLEO vs ASL51¢

2Colin Sinclair to winSIN vs XIA62¢

3New York Y to winNYY vs MIN56¢

4Yokohama DeNA BayStars to winYOM vs YOK64¢

5Dallas to winWAS vs DAL65¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 25% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.