September 16, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

4.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$505

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 4.0% to hit, missing was always about 96% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1KT Wiz to winKTW vs HAN47¢

2Alexandre Pantoja to winVAN vs PAN44¢

3Kensei Hirata to win50¢

4Los Angeles D to winLAD vs CIN66¢

5Chloe Paquet to winORT vs PAQ58¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 18% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.