September 18, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

Not settled yet

WE SAID

5.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

—

still playing

FAIR PAYOUT

$388

off $20

The ticket, as we published it

1Hiromi Abe to winABE vs ISH66¢

2Over 7.5 runs scoredBOS vs TEX51¢

3Over 8.5 runs scoredDET vs CWS49¢

4Over 1.5 1H goals scoredFLA vs IND46¢

5Marta Kostyuk to winKOS vs SAM68¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 21% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

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Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.