September 19, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

3.3%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$612

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 3.3% to hit, missing was always about 97% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 12.5 runs scoredWSH vs STL38¢

2Aoi Ito to winITO vs LAN66¢

3Over 15.5 runs scoredDET vs CWS67¢

4Ena Shibahara to winLUX vs SHI54¢

5Noah Fant: 3+ receptionsNOB vs AL36¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 17% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.