September 20, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

8.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

1 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$250

off $20

It missed, with 1 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 8.0% to hit, missing was always about 92% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Botic Van de Zandschulp to winVAN vs MEJ72¢

2UConn wins by over 26.5 points to winCONN vs USM61¢

3New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs to winNYY vs AZ55¢

4Leicestershire to winMID vs LEI57¢

5Ilia Simakin to winPAC vs SIM58¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 27% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.