September 21, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

5.1%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$394

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 5.1% to hit, missing was always about 95% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Braden Shick to winSHI vs MAL72¢

2Las Vegas to winLV vs NO39¢

3Santiago Rodriguez Taverna to winROD vs TEN79¢

4Los Angeles R wins by over 6.5 points to winNYG vs LAR52¢

5Lanus to winLAN vs ELP44¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 22% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.