September 23, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

Not settled yet

WE SAID

10.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

—

still playing

FAIR PAYOUT

$197

off $20

The ticket, as we published it

1Elise Mertens to winMER vs KRE67¢

2Federico Cina to winBAS vs CIN62¢

3there be over 20.5 1H points scoredHOU vs IND54¢

4Kurea Hayasaka to winHAY vs RAJ73¢

5Elise Mertens to winElise Mertens vs Barbora62¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 30% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.