September 24, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It cashed

WE SAID

5.0%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

5 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$396

off $20

This one landed, and roughly 5.0% of the time it was always going to. A win does not make it a good bet, and a loss would not have made it a bad one. The price you pay is what decides that.

The ticket, as we published it

1Nikoloz Basilashvili to winKEC vs BAS38¢

2Fabian Marozsan to winMAR vs BOL76¢

3Over 10.5 runs scoredTBN vs YY63¢

4Atlanta wins by over 14.5 points to winATL vs NY59¢

5Over 9.5 runs scoredLAA vs ATH47¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 22% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.