September 26, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

9.6%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$208

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 9.6% to hit, missing was always about 90% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Valentin Vacherot to winVAC vs HAR51¢

2Over 11.5 runs scoredCLE vs KC71¢

3Over 6.5 runs scoredLAA vs SEA52¢

4Luis Hernandez to winHER vs DUM70¢

5Chicago WS wins by over 2.5 runs to winCOL vs CWS73¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 30% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.