September 28, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

8.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

0 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$243

off $20

It missed, with 0 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 8.2% to hit, missing was always about 92% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Miami score over 1.5 goals: Miami over 1.5 goalsCLB vs MIA64¢

2LG Twins to winLGK vs IA79¢

3Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals to winJPN vs VEN50¢

4Davante Adams: 1+ touchdownsLAR vs DEN44¢

5Golden State to winDAL vs GS74¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 28% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.