September 29, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

It missed

WE SAID

12.1%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

3 / 5

final

FAIR PAYOUT

$165

off $20

It missed, with 3 of 5 legs landing. That is the ordinary outcome: at 12.1% to hit, missing was always about 88% likely, and coming up a leg or two short is the most common way it happens.

The ticket, as we published it

1Felipe Meligeni Alves to winMEL vs ZAR76¢

2Katarzyna Kawa to winKAW vs SAV75¢

3Full Game: over 42.5 points scoredNEB vs UF68¢

4over 1.5 goals be scored: Over 1.5 goals scoredLIB vs OLI40¢

5Martyna Kubka to winEFR vs KUB78¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 35% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.