September 30, 2026

We built this 5-leg combo from live Kalshi markets and published its odds before the games were played. Here is what we said, and what actually happened. See the whole archive.

Not settled yet

WE SAID

3.2%

chance to hit

LEGS THAT LANDED

—

still playing

FAIR PAYOUT

$629

off $20

The ticket, as we published it

1Over 1.5 1H goals scoredUSA vs CHI74¢

2Payton Tolle: 7+ strikeoutsBOS vs NYY53¢

3Linda Fruhvirtova to winBAI vs FRU41¢

4Andrey Rublev -2.5 games to winGRI vs RUB46¢

5Yainer Diaz: 1+ home runsCWS vs HOU43¢

The near-miss trap: this ticket came up exactly one leg short 16% of the time, far more often than it ever cashed. That is what keeps people building them.

Open this combo in the builder →See today’s combo

Never a pick or a recommendation. Odds were published before the games and the result was settled from Kalshi’s public data.