What are the current odds for Which party will win the U.S. House??

Democratic Party 84%, Republican Party 15%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Which party will win the U.S. House?

Live Kalshi odds · 2 outcomesOne winner

Democratic Party▼184%

Republican Party▼115%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 99% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

84¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

88¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 88.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 84c. Based on 52 settled other markets in the 80-89c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=720). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Democratic Party at 84¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/CONTROLH-2026" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Which party will win the U.S. House? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/CONTROLH-2026">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.