Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 72%, a 28-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
27¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
18¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
-7¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 18.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 27c. Based on 271 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 26% of the time (n=3,320). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Bola Tinubu at 27¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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