What are the current odds for Moriya vs Shimizu?

Hiroki Moriya 59%, Yuta Shimizu 41%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Sports

Moriya vs Shimizu

Live Kalshi odds · 2 outcomesOne winner

Hiroki Moriya59%

Yuta Shimizu41%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 100% (about fair). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

59¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

54¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 53.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 59c. Based on 1,317 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,929). The price implies 59%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Hiroki Moriya at 59¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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