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Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Sports

Ryan Garcia vs. Conor Benn: Round of Victory

Live Kalshi odds · 25 outcomesOne winner

▼3Biggest move: Ryan Garcia to win in Round 4 down to 6% recently.

Decision / Draw / No Contest59%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 16%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 26%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 4▼36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 5▼36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 6▼36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 7▼36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 8▼36%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 96%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 106%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 116%

Ryan Garcia to win in Round 126%

Conor Benn to win in Round 12%

Conor Benn to win in Round 22%

Conor Benn to win in Round 32%

Conor Benn to win in Round 42%

Conor Benn to win in Round 5▼22%

Conor Benn to win in Round 62%

Conor Benn to win in Round 72%

Conor Benn to win in Round 82%

Conor Benn to win in Round 92%

Conor Benn to win in Round 102%

Conor Benn to win in Round 112%

Conor Benn to win in Round 122%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 155%, a 55-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

59¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

54¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 53.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 59c. Based on 1,317 settled sports markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the sports curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 50–59¢ have gone on to settle YES 55% of the time (n=1,929). The price implies 59%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Decision / Draw / No Contest at 59¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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