Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 134%, a 34-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
45¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
49¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+2¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 48.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 45c. Based on 327 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 44% of the time (n=4,634). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Michelle Bolsonaro at 45¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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