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BTC price on Oct 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Live Kalshi odds · 80 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
$82,000 or above99%
2
$82,250 or above98%
3
$82,500 or above98%
4
$82,750 or above98%
5
$83,000 or above98%
6
$83,500 or above98%
7
$83,250 or above97%
8
$83,750 or above96%
9
$84,000 or above90%
10
$84,250 or above84%
11
$84,500 or above73%
12
$84,750 or above55%
13
$85,000 or above38%
14
$85,250 or above24%
15
$85,500 or above12%
16
$85,750 or above8%
17
$86,000 or above4%
18
$86,250 or above3%
19
$86,500 or above2%
20
$86,750 or above2%
21
$87,000 or above2%
22
$87,250 or above1%
23
$87,500 or above1%
24
$94,000 or above1%
25
$74,500 or above0%
26
$74,750 or above0%
27
$75,000 or above0%
28
$75,250 or above0%
29
$75,500 or above0%
30
$75,750 or above0%
31
$76,000 or above0%
32
$76,250 or above0%
33
$76,500 or above0%
34
$76,750 or above0%
35
$77,000 or above0%
36
$77,250 or above0%
37
$77,500 or above0%
38
$77,750 or above0%
39
$78,000 or above0%
40
$78,250 or above0%
41
$78,500 or above0%
42
$78,750 or above0%
43
$79,000 or above0%
44
$79,250 or above0%
45
$79,500 or above0%
46
$79,750 or above0%
47
$80,000 or above0%
48
$80,250 or above0%
49
$80,500 or above0%
50
$80,750 or above0%
51
$81,000 or above0%
52
$81,250 or above0%
53
$81,500 or above0%
54
$81,750 or above0%
55
$87,750 or above0%
56
$88,000 or above0%
57
$88,250 or above0%
58
$88,500 or above0%
59
$88,750 or above0%
60
$89,000 or above0%
61
$89,250 or above0%
62
$89,500 or above0%
63
$89,750 or above0%
64
$90,000 or above0%
65
$90,250 or above0%
66
$90,500 or above0%
67
$90,750 or above0%
68
$91,000 or above0%
69
$91,250 or above0%
70
$91,500 or above0%
71
$91,750 or above0%
72
$92,000 or above0%
73
$92,250 or above0%
74
$92,500 or above0%
75
$92,750 or above0%
76
$93,000 or above0%
77
$93,250 or above0%
78
$93,500 or above0%
79
$93,750 or above0%
80
$94,250 or above0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 1182%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,474). The price implies 99%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, $82,000 or above at 99¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXBTCD-26OCT0417">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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