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BTC price on Sep 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Live Kalshi odds · 50 outcomesMultiple can happen
1
$66,500 or above98%
2
$67,500 or above96%
3
$68,000 or above96%
4
$69,000 or above96%
5
$69,500 or above96%
6
$68,500 or above95%
7
$70,000 or above95%
8
$72,000 or above95%
9
$71,500 or above94%
10
$70,500 or above93%
11
$71,000 or above92%
12
$72,500 or above92%
13
$73,000 or above90%
14
$73,500 or above86%
15
$74,000 or above83%
16
$74,500 or above80%
17
$75,000 or above77%
18
$75,500 or above74%
19
$76,000 or above69%
20
$76,500 or above63%
21
$77,000 or above59%
22
$77,500 or above53%
23
$78,000 or above48%
24
$78,500 or above42%
25
$79,000 or above37%
26
$79,500 or above31%
27
$80,000 or above27%
28
$80,500 or above22%
29
$81,000 or above19%
30
$81,500 or above16%
31
$82,000 or above13%
32
$82,500 or above10%
33
$83,000 or above10%
34
$83,500 or above8%
35
$84,000 or above7%
36
$87,000 or above4%
37
$85,000 or above3%
38
$85,500 or above3%
39
$88,000 or above3%
40
$67,000 or above0%
41
$84,500 or above0%
42
$86,000 or above0%
43
$86,500 or above0%
44
$87,500 or above0%
45
$88,500 or above0%
46
$89,000 or above0%
47
$89,500 or above0%
48
$90,000 or above0%
49
$90,500 or above0%
50
$91,000 or above0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 2175%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be overcharging for this
KALSHI CHARGES
98¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
92¢
AFTER THE 1¢ FEE
-5¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES only 91.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 98c. Based on 678 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough crypto history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the crypto curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 92% of the time (n=678). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, $66,500 or above at 98¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXBTCD-26SEP0417">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
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