How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Economics

October 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core

Live Kalshi odds · 16 outcomesOne winner

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%17%

Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%15%

Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.3%15%

Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.3%9%

Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below6%

Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%6%

Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.1% or below4%

Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.4% or above3%

Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: 0.4% or above2%

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.4% or above2%

Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%

Headline: 0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.3%0%

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.1% or below0%

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.3%0%

Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below0%

Headline: 0.4% or above, Core: 0.4% or above0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 80%, a 20-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

17¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 14.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 17c. Based on 2,537 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough economics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the economics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,537). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2% at 17¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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