What are the current odds for Open de España presented by Madrid Winner?

Ludvig Aberg 10%, Shane Lowry 5%, Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra 4%, David Puig 4%, Angel Ayora 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Open de España presented by Madrid Winner

Live Kalshi odds · 128 outcomesOne winner

Ludvig Aberg10%

Shane Lowry5%

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra4%

David Puig4%

Angel Ayora3%

Jose Luis Ballester Barrio3%

Maximilian Steinlechner1%

Kiradech Aphibarnrat0%

Marcus Armitage0%

Davis Bryant0%

Rafa Cabrera Bello0%

Ivan Cantero Gutierrez0%

Alfredo Garcia-Heredia0%

Daniel Gavins0%

Ricardo Gouveia0%

Oihan Guillamoundeguy0%

Brandon Robinson Thompson0%

103

Daniel Rodrigues0%

104

Sebastian Rodriguez Garcia0%

105

Thomas Rosenmueller0%

Sebastian Soderberg0%

Nicolai von Dellingshausen0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 90%, a 10-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

10¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+4¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 15.5% of the time, and the crowd is charging 10c. Based on 233 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 4c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,433). The price implies 10%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Ludvig Aberg at 10¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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