What are the current odds for Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader?

Joaquin Niemann 78%, Daniel Hillier 6%, Rikuya Hoshino 4%, Jordan L. Smith 4%, Matt Wallace 4%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader

Live Kalshi odds · 145 outcomesOne winner

▲76Biggest move: Joaquin Niemann up to 78% recently.

Joaquin Niemann▲7678%

Oihan Guillamoundeguy▲12%

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra2%

Richard Mansell2%

Niklas Norgaard Moller2%

Kiradech Aphibarnrat1%

Marcus Armitage1%

Angel Ayora Fanegas▼11%

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen1%

Brandon Robinson-Thompson1%

Benjamin Schmidt1%

Marcel Siem1%

Sebastian Soderberg1%

Nicolai Von Dellingshausen1%

Bernd Wiesberger1%

Ashun Wu1%

Yanhan Zhou1%

Marcus Helligkilde▼21%

Maximilian Steinlechner1%

Ivan Cantero Gutierrez0%

Francesco Molinari▼10%

Jacob Skov Olesen▼20%

Jayden Trey Schaper▼60%

Thomas Rosenmueller0%

145

James Morrison0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 211%, a 111-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

78¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

71¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-5¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 70.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 78c. Based on 65 settled other markets in the 70-79c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 75% of the time (n=946). The price implies 78%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Joaquin Niemann at 78¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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