What are the current odds for Open de España presented by Madrid End of Round 1 Leader?

Daniel Hillier 21%, David Law 5%, Ludvig Aberg 4%, Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 4%, Angel Ayora Fanegas 3%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. Only one outcome can occur, so across all outcomes the prices should sum to about 100%; the small excess is the market's spread.

Odds boards / Other

Open de España presented by Madrid End of Round 1 Leader

Live Kalshi odds · 132 outcomesOne winner

Daniel Hillier21%

David Law5%

Ludvig Aberg4%

Alfredo Garcia-Heredia4%

Angel Ayora Fanegas3%

Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra3%

Ivan Cantero Gutierrez1%

Alejandro Rodriguez Andreu1%

Thomas Rosenmueller1%

Marcel Siem1%

Elvis Smylie1%

Maximilian Steinlechner1%

Kiradech Aphibarnrat0%

Sam Bairstow0%

Jose Luis Ballester Barrio0%

Gonzalo Banos Ramos0%

Oihan Guillamoundeguy0%

Sergio Jimenez Romero0%

Brandon Robinson-Thompson0%

117

Sebastian Rodriguez Garcia0%

Sebastian Soderberg0%

Nicolai Von Dellingshausen0%

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 135%, a 35-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

21¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

18¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

-1¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 18.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 21c. Based on 244 settled other markets in the 20-29c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 2c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 25% of the time (n=2,858). The price implies 21%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Daniel Hillier at 21¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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