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Spanish Grand Prix Winner

Live Kalshi odds · 22 outcomesOne winner
▼13Biggest move: Lando Norris down to 12% recently.
1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli▲541%
2
Lewis Hamilton▲416%
3
George Russell▼115%
4
Charles Leclerc▲614%
5
Lando Norris▼1312%
6
Max Verstappen▼18%
7
Oscar Piastri▼24%
8
Alexander Albon1%
9
Esteban Ocon1%
10
Gabriel Bortoleto1%
11
Fernando Alonso1%
12
Franco Colapinto1%
13
Carlos Sainz Jr.1%
14
Liam Lawson1%
15
Lance Stroll1%
16
Isack Hadjar1%
17
Pierre Gasly1%
18
Sergio Perez1%
19
Valtteri Bottas1%
20
Arvid Lindblad1%
21
Nico Hulkenberg0%
22
Oliver Bearman0%
Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 123%, a 23-point overround (the market's built-in spread). Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
The crowd may be underpricing this
KALSHI CHARGES
41¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
51¢
AFTER THE 2¢ FEE
+8¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 51.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 41c. Based on 188 settled other markets in the 40-49c band, priced about a day before their events. After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 8c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 40–49¢ have gone on to settle YES 43% of the time (n=2,276). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 41¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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